Progress towards universal health coverage and inequalities in infant mortality: an analysis of 4·1 million births from 60 low-income and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2019.

BACKGROUND: Expanding universal health coverage (UHC) might not be inherently beneficial to poorer populations without the explicit targeting and prioritising of low-income populations. This study examines whether the expansion of UHC between 2000 and 2019 is associated with reduced socioeconomic inequalities in infant mortality in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: We did a retrospective analysis of birth data compiled from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs). We analysed all births between 2000 and 2019 from all DHSs available for this period. The primary outcome was infant mortality, defined as death within 1 year of birth. Logistic regression models with country and year fixed effects assessed associations between country-level progress to UHC (using WHO's UHC service coverage index) and infant mortality (overall and by wealth quintile), adjusting for infant-level, mother-level, and country-level variables. FINDINGS: A total of 4 065 868 births to 1 833 011 mothers were analysed from 177 DHSs covering 60 LMICs between 2000 and 2019. A one unit increase in the UHC index was associated with a 1·2% reduction in the risk of infant death (AOR 0·988, 95% CI 0·981-0·995; absolute measure of association, 0·57 deaths per 1000 livebirths). An estimated 15·5 million infant deaths were averted between 2000 and 2019 because of increases in UHC. However, richer wealth quintiles had larger associated reductions in infant mortality from UHC (quintile 5 AOR 0·983, 95% CI 0·973-0·993) than poorer quintiles (quintile 1 0·991, 0·985-0·998). In the early stages of UHC, UHC expansion was generally beneficial to poorer populations (ie, larger reductions in infant mortality for poorer households [infant deaths per 1000 per one unit increase in UHC coverage: quintile 1 0·84 vs quintile 5 0·59]), but became less so as overall coverage increased (quintile 1 0·64 vs quintile 5 0·57). INTERPRETATION: Since UHC expansion in LMICs appears to become less beneficial to poorer populations as coverage increases, UHC policies should be explicitly designed to ensure lower income groups continue to benefit as coverage expands. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Racial inequalities in mental healthcare use and mortality: a cross-sectional analysis of 1.2 million low-income individuals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 2010-2016.

INTRODUCTION: Mental health inequalities across racial and ethnic groups are large and unjust in many countries, yet these inequalities remain under-researched, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries such as Brazil. This study investigates racial and socioeconomic inequalities in primary healthcare usage, hospitalisation and mortality for mental health disorders in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. METHODS: A cohort of 1.2 million low-income adults from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil with linked socioeconomic, demographic, healthcare use and mortality records was cross-sectionally analysed. Poisson regression models were used to investigate associations between self-defined race/colour and primary healthcare (PHC) usage, hospitalisation and mortality due to mental disorders, adjusting for socioeconomic factors. Interactions between race/colour and socioeconomic characteristics (sex, education level, income) explored if black and pardo (mixed race) individuals faced compounded risk of adverse mental health outcomes. RESULTS: There were 272 532 PHC consultations, 10 970 hospitalisations and 259 deaths due to mental disorders between 2010 and 2016. After adjusting for a wide range of socioeconomic factors, the lowest PHC usage rates were observed in black (adjusted rate ratio (ARR): 0.64; 95% CI 0.60 to 0.68; compared with white) and pardo individuals (ARR: 0.87; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.92). Black individuals were more likely to die from mental disorders (ARR: 1.68; 95% CI 1.19 to 2.37; compared with white), as were those with lower educational attainment and household income. In interaction models, being black or pardo conferred additional disadvantage across mental health outcomes. The highest educated black (ARR: 0.56; 95% CI 0.47 to 0.66) and pardo (ARR: 0.75; 95% CI 0.66 to 0.87) individuals had lower rates of PHC usage for mental disorders compared with the least educated white individuals. Black individuals were 3.7 times (ARR: 3.67; 95% CI 1.29 to 10.42) more likely to die from mental disorders compared with white individuals with the same education level. CONCLUSION: In low-income individuals in Rio de Janeiro, racial/colour inequalities in mental health outcomes were large and not fully explainable by socioeconomic status. Black and pardo Brazilians were consistently negatively affected, with lower PHC usage and worse mental health outcomes.

The heterogeneous effects of China's hierarchical medical system reforms on health service utilisation and health outcomes among elderly populations: a longitudinal quasi-experimental study.

BACKGROUND: System-wide, comprehensive, primary health care (PHC)-oriented health reforms are infrequently introduced in low-income and middle-income countries and often poorly studied. China initiated a large-scale reform in 2015 that included multiple policies: partial gatekeeping, a family physician scheme, and increased system integration. These policies aimed to build a PHC-oriented health system and improve primary care utilisation. This study assessed the heterogeneous effects of the reforms on health service utilisation and health outcomes across regions and over time. METHODS: In this longitudinal quasi-experimental study, we used longitudinal data (2011-18) from a national survey on elderly populations and governmental yearbooks. This study exploits the staggered rollout of the reforms at the city level identified using web-scrapping. We employed an event study design to assess reform effects on (1) visits to PHC facilities, (2) admissions to hospital, (3) out-of-pocket expenditures (OOPEs), and (4) self-reported health. Models were adjusted for city and time fixed effects, along with demographic and socioeconomic characteristics at individual and provincial levels. Analysis was separated into rural and urban populations. FINDINGS: 18 988 Chinese individuals aged 45 and older (mean age 60·4 years [SD 10·3], 9990 [52·6%] women, 8998 [47·4%] men) were included in the analysis. The reform was associated with increasing odds of visiting PHC facilities among rural populations, which became stronger in the 2 years after the reform (adjusted odd ratio [aOR] 1·35, 95% CI 1·02-1·84, p=0·0374; absolute effect sizes [probability] 3%) before it faded. Meanwhile, urban populations were unaffected (from aOR 1·22, 0·82-1·81 to 0·89, 0·50-1·57). The reform did not have a significant effect on admission to hospital (rural: from 0·97, 0·72-1·31 to 1·47, 0·85-2·55; urban: from 1·00, 0·69-1·43 to 1·59, 0·76-3·30) or OOPEs (rural: from 260·32 Chinese Yuan, 95% CI -6·34 to 526·97, to 693·07 Chinese Yuan, -102·96 to 1489·09; urban: from 235·37 Chinese Yuan, -405·10 to 875·83, to 859·93 Chinese Yuan, -199·02 to 1918·88). Urban populations reported higher self-reported health after the reforms than the year before the reforms (1·50, 1·12-2·01, p=0·0002; 5%). INTERPRETATION: System-wide PHC-oriented reforms might contribute to short-term increases in primary care utilisation in elderly populations with implications for urban-rural inequalities. Effects on financial protection and health inequality were limited. Efforts in improving the accessibility and quality of primary care in deprived areas are indispensable to addressing the persistent inverse care law and to achieving Universal Health Coverage for all countries. FUNDING: None.

Health and health system impacts of China's comprehensive primary healthcare reforms: a systematic review.

China's comprehensive primary healthcare (PHC) reforms since 2009 aimed to deliver accessible, efficient, equitable and high-quality healthcare services. However, knowledge on the system-wide effectiveness of these reforms is limited. This systematic review synthesizes evidence on the reforms' health and health system impacts. In 13 August 2022, international databases and three Chinese databases were searched for randomized controlled trials, quasi-experimental studies and controlled before-after studies. Included studies assessed large-scale PHC policies since 2009; had a temporal comparator and a control group and assessed impacts on expenditures, utilization, care quality and health outcomes. Study quality was assessed using Risk of Bias In Non-randomized Studies of Interventions, and results were synthesized narratively. From 49 174 identified records, 42 studies were included-all with quasi-experimental designs, except for one randomized control trial. Nine studies were assessed as at low risk of bias. Only five low- to moderate-quality studies assessed the comprehensive reforms as a whole and found associated increases in health service utilization, whilst the other 37 studies examined single-component policies. The National Essential Medicine Policy (N = 15) and financing reforms (N = 11) were the most studied policies, whilst policies on primary care provision (i.e. family physician policy and the National Essential Public Health Services) were poorly evaluated. The PHC reforms were associated with increased primary care utilization (N = 17) and improved health outcomes in people with non-communicable diseases (N = 8). Evidence on healthcare costs was unclear, and impacts on patients' financial burden and care quality were understudied. Some studies showed disadvantaged regions and groups that accrued greater benefits (N = 8). China's comprehensive PHC reforms have made some progress in achieving their policy objectives including increasing primary care utilization, improving some health outcomes and reducing health inequalities. However, China's health system remains largely hospital-centric and further PHC strengthening is needed to advance universal health coverage.

Associations between primary healthcare and infant health outcomes: a cohort analysis of low-income mothers in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Background: Expanding primary healthcare to urban poor populations is a priority in many low-and middle-income countries and is essential to achieve universal health coverage (UHC). Between 2008 and 2016 the city of Rio de Janeiro undertook an ambitious programme to rapidly expand primary care to low-income areas through the family health strategy (FHS). Infant health impacts of this roll out are unknown. This study examines associations between maternal FHS utilisation and birth outcomes, neonatal and infant mortality. Methods: A cohort of 75,339 live births (January 2009-December 2014) to low-income mothers in Rio de Janeiro was linked to primary care, birth, hospital and death records. The relationship between maternal FHS use and infant health outcomes was assessed through logistic regression with inverse probability treatment weighting and regression adjustment. Socioeconomic inequalities in the associations between FHS use and outcomes were explored through interactions. Primary outcomes were neonatal and infant death. Thirteen secondary outcomes were also examined to explore other important health outcomes and potential mechanisms. Results: A total of 9002 (12.0%) infants were born to mothers in the cohort who used FHS services either before pregnancy or in the first two trimesters. There was a total of 527 neonatal and 893 infant deaths. Maternal FHS usage during the first two trimesters was associated with substantial reductions in neonatal [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 0.527, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.345; 0.806] and infant mortality (aOR: 0.672, 95% CI: 0.48; 0.924). Infants born to lower-income mothers and those without formal employment had larger reductions in neonatal and infant mortality associated with FHS use. Maternal FHS in the first two trimesters use was also associated with more antenatal care consultations and a lower risk of low birth weight and preterm birth. Interpretation: Expanding primary care to low-income populations in Rio de Janeiro was associated with improved infant health and health equity benefits. Funding: DFID/MRC/Wellcome Trust/ESRC.

Subsidised housing and diabetes mortality: a retrospective cohort study of 10 million low-income adults in Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: Housing-related factors can be predictors of health, including of diabetes outcomes. We analysed the association between subsidised housing residency and diabetes mortality among a large cohort of low-income adults in Brazil. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A cohort of 9 961 271 low-income adults, observed from January 2010 to December 2015, was created from Brazilian administrative records of social programmes and death certificates. We analysed the association between subsidised housing residency and time to diabetes mortality using a Cox model with inverse probability of treatment weighting and regression adjustment. We assessed inequalities in this association by groups of municipality Human Development Index. Diabetes mortality included diabetes both as the underlying or a contributory cause of death. RESULTS: At baseline, the mean age of the cohort was 40.3 years (SD 15.6 years), with a majority of women (58.4%). During 29 238 920 person-years of follow-up, there were 18 775 deaths with diabetes as the underlying or a contributory cause. 340 683 participants (3.4% of the cohort) received subsidised housing. Subsidised housing residents had a higher hazard of diabetes mortality compared with non-residents (HR 1.17; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.31). The magnitude of this association was more pronounced among participants living in municipalities with lower Human Development Index (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.62). CONCLUSIONS: Subsidised housing residents had a greater risk of diabetes mortality, particularly those living in low socioeconomic status municipalities. This finding suggests the need to intensify diabetes prevention and control actions and prompt treatment of the diabetes complications among subsidised housing residents, particularly among those living in low socioeconomic status municipalities.

Gender inequalities in violence victimization and depression in Brazil: results from the 2019 national health survey.

BACKGROUND: Violence is a worldwide public health challenge and has been linked to depression in many settings. Depression is higher in women and differential exposure to violence is a potential risk factor - especially in countries with high-levels of violence. This paper provides a comprehensive characterization of the association between violence victimization and depression in Brazil, focusing on sex/gender inequalities. METHODS: We used data from the 2019 wave of the National Health Survey (PNS) in Brazil to assess whether respondents had depression (using PHQ-9) and if they were victims of violence, differentiating by the type of violence, the frequency of victimization, and the primary aggressor. We used logit models to assess the association between victimization and the likelihood of having depression. We predicted probabilities of being depressed, considering the interaction between violence victimization and sex/gender, to analyze the differences between men and women. RESULTS: Rates of violence victimization and depression were higher among women than among men. The odds of being depressed were 3.8 (95%CI: 3.5-4.2) times higher among victims of violence than among non-victims, and 2.3 (95%CI: 2.1-2.6) times higher among women than among men, adjusting for socioeconomic factors. For any given income level, racial/ethnic or age group, victims of violence who were women had the highest predicted probabilities of being depressed - e.g., 29.4% (95%CI: 26.1-32.8) for lower-income women, 28.9% (95%CI: 24.4-33.2) for black women, and 30.4% (95%CI: 25.4-35.4) for younger women that suffered violence. Over one in three women that suffered multiple types of violence, experienced violence more frequently, or where the aggressor was an intimate partner or another family member were predicted to have depression. CONCLUSIONS: Being a victim of violence was strongly associated with higher risk of depression in Brazil, with women more likely to be both victims of violence and develop depression. Frequent, sexual, physical or psychological violence, and intimate partners or family member perpetrators were major risk factors for depression and should be a public health priority.

Primary health care system responses to non-communicable disease prevention and control: a scoping review of national policies in Mainland China since the 2009 health reform.

This study aims to review China's national policies related to non-communicable disease (NCD) prevention and control at the primary health care (PHC) level since China's 2009 health system reform. Policy documents from official websites of China's State Council and 20 affiliated ministries were screened, where 151 out of 1,799 were included. Thematic content analysis was performed, and fourteen 'major policy initiatives' were identified, including the basic health insurance schemes and essential public health services. Several areas showed to have strong policy support, including service delivery, health financing, and leadership/governance. Compared with WHO recommendations, several gaps remain, including lack of emphasis on multi-sectoral collaboration, underuse of non-health-professionals, and lack of quality-oriented PHC services evaluations. Over the past decade, China continues to demonstrate its policy commitment to strengthen the PHC system for NCD prevention and control. We recommend future policies to facilitate multi-sectoral collaboration, enhance community engagement, and improve performance evaluation mechanisms.

Primary health care as a platform for addressing racial discrimination to "leave no one behind" and reduce health inequities.

The health inequities faced by populations experiencing racial discrimination, including indigenous peoples and people of African descent, Roma, and other ethnic minorities, are an issue of global concern. Health systems have an important role to play in tackling these health inequities. Health systems based on comprehensive Primary Health Care (PHC) are best placed to tackle health inequities because PHC encompasses a whole-of-society approach to health. PHC includes actions to address the wider social determinants of health, multisectoral policy and action, intercultural and integrated healthcare services, community empowerment, and a focus on addressing health inequities. PHC can also serve as a platform for introducing specific actions to tackle racial discrimination and can act to drive wider societal change for tackling racial and ethnic health inequities.

Socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequalities in depression prevalence and the treatment gap in Brazil: A decomposition analysis.

Depression is a major global health burden and there are stark socioeconomic inequalities in both the prevalence of depression and access to treatment for depression. In Brazil, racial/ethnic inequalities are of particular concern, but the factors contributing to these inequalities remain mostly unknown. This paper firstly explores determinants of depression and the treatment gap (i.e., untreated afflicted individuals) in Brazil and identifies if socio-economic and health system factors explain changes over time. Secondly, it analyses income and racial/ethnic inequalities in depression and the treatment gap and identifies factors explaining inequalities through decomposition methods. Data from two waves (2013 and 2019) of a representative household-based survey are used. In 2019, 10.8% of adults were depressed, but over 70% of depressed adults did not receive care. Black or brown/mixed Brazilians were more likely to have untreated depression, and region of residence was the most important determinant of these racial/ethnic inequalities. Notably, 44.6% of the difference in the treatment gap between white individuals and black and brown/mixed individuals was not explained by differences in observables, which could potentially be due to discrimination or difficulties in accessing treatment due to other non-observable characteristics. Employment, age, exposure to violence and physical activity are the main contributing factors to income inequalities in depression. These results suggest that policies aimed at improving the levels of exposure of lower-income individuals to risk factors may positively impact mental health and mental health inequalities, while addressing inequalities in service provision and resourcing for mental health and tackling barriers to access stemming from discrimination are essential to bridge the treatment gap equitably.

Nation-Wide Routinely Collected Health Datasets in China: A Scoping Review.

Objectives: The potential for using routinely collected data for medical research in China remains unclear. We sought to conduct a scoping review to systematically characterise nation-wide routinely collected datasets in China that may be of value for clinical research. Methods: We searched public databases and the websites of government agencies, and non-government organizations. We included nation-wide routinely collected databases related to communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases, injuries, and maternal and child health. Database characteristics, including disease area, data custodianship, data volume, frequency of update and accessibility were extracted and summarised. Results: There were 70 databases identified, of which 46 related to communicable diseases, 20 to non-communicable diseases, 1 to injury and 3 to maternal and child health. The data volume varied from below 1000 to over 100,000 records. Over half (64%) of the databases were accessible for medical research mostly comprising communicable diseases. Conclusion: There are large quantities of routinely collected data in China. Challenges to using such data in medical research remain with various accessibility. The potential of routinely collected data may also be applicable to other low- and middle-income countries.

The relative effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on wave one Covid-19 mortality: natural experiment in 130 countries.

BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented around the world to control Covid-19 transmission. Their general effect on reducing virus transmission is proven, but they can also be negative to mental health and economies, and transmission behaviours can also change voluntarily, without mandated interventions. Their relative impact on Covid-19 attributed mortality, enabling policy selection for maximal benefit with minimal disruption, is not well established due to a lack of definitive methods. METHODS: We examined variations in timing and strictness of nine non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented in 130 countries and recorded by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT): 1) School closing; 2) Workplace closing; 3) Cancelled public events; 4) Restrictions on gatherings; 5) Closing public transport; 6) Stay at home requirements ('Lockdown'); 7) Restrictions on internal movement; 8) International travel controls; 9) Public information campaigns. We used two time periods in the first wave of Covid-19, chosen to limit reverse causality, and fixed country policies to those implemented: i) prior to first Covid-19 death (when policymakers could not possibly be reacting to deaths in their own country); and, ii) 14-days-post first Covid-19 death (when deaths were still low, so reactive policymaking still likely to be minimal). We then examined associations with daily deaths per million in each subsequent 24-day period, which could only be affected by the intervention period, using linear and non-linear multivariable regression models. This method, therefore, exploited the known biological lag between virus transmission (which is what the policies can affect) and mortality for statistical inference. RESULTS: After adjusting, earlier and stricter school (- 1.23 daily deaths per million, 95% CI - 2.20 to - 0.27) and workplace closures (- 0.26, 95% CI - 0.46 to - 0.05) were associated with lower Covid-19 mortality rates. Other interventions were not significantly associated with differences in mortality rates across countries. Findings were robust across multiple statistical approaches. CONCLUSIONS: Focusing on 'compulsory', particularly school closing, not 'voluntary' reduction of social interactions with mandated interventions appears to have been the most effective strategy to mitigate early, wave one, Covid-19 mortality. Within 'compulsory' settings, such as schools and workplaces, less damaging interventions than closing might also be considered in future waves/epidemics.

The effect of conditional cash transfers on the control of neglected tropical disease: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are diseases of poverty and affect 1·5 billion people globally. Conditional cash transfer (CCTs) programmes alleviate poverty in many countries, potentially contributing to improved NTD outcomes. This systematic review examines the relationship between CCTs and screening, incidence, or treatment outcomes of NTDs. METHODS: In this systematic review we searched MEDLINE, Embase, Lilacs, EconLit, Global Health, and grey literature websites on Sept 17, 2020, with no date or language restrictions. Controlled quantitative studies including randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies evaluating CCT interventions in low-income and middle-income countries were included. Any outcome measures related to WHO's 20 diseases classified as NTDs were included. Studies from high-income countries were excluded. Two authors (AA and TH) extracted data from published studies and appraised risk of biases using the Risk of Bias in Non-Randomised Studies of Interventions and Risk of Bias 2 tools. Results were analysed narratively. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020202480. FINDINGS: From the search, 5165 records were identified; of these, 11 studies were eligible for inclusion covering four CCTs in Brazil, the Philippines, Mexico, and Zambia. Most studies were either RCTs or quasi-experimental studies and ten were assessed to be of moderate quality. Seven studies reported improved NTD outcomes associated with CCTs, in particular, reduced incidence of leprosy and increased uptake of deworming treatments. There was some evidence of greater benefit of CCTS in lower socioeconomic groups but subgroup analysis was scarce. Methodological weaknesses include self-reported outcomes, missing data, improper randomisation, and differences between CCT and comparator populations in observational studies. The available evidence is currently limited, covering a small proportion of CCTs and NTDs. INTERPRETATION: CCTs can be associated with improved NTD outcomes, and could be driven by both improvements in living standards from cash benefits and direct health effects from conditionalities related to health-care use. This evidence adds to the knowledge of health-improving effects from CCTs in poor and vulnerable populations. FUNDING: None.

Global inequalities in the double burden of malnutrition and associations with globalisation: a multilevel analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys from 55 low-income and middle-income countries, 1992-2018.

BACKGROUND: Low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) face a double burden of malnutrition (DBM), whereby overnutrition and undernutrition coexist within the same individual, household, or population. This analysis investigates global inequalities in household-level DBM, expressed as a stunted child with an overweight mother, and its association with economic, social, and political globalisation across country income and household wealth. METHODS: We pooled anthropometric and demographic data for 1 132 069 children (aged <5 years) and their mothers (aged 15-49 years) from 189 Demographic and Health Surveys in 55 LMICs between 1992 and 2018. These data were combined with country-level data on economic, social, and political globalisation from the Konjunkturforschungsstelle Globalisation Index and gross national income (GNI) from the World Bank. Multivariate associations between DBM and household wealth, GNI, and globalisation and their interactions were tested using multilevel logistic regression models with country and year fixed-effects and robust standard errors clustered by country. FINDINGS: The probability of DBM was higher among richer households in poorer LMICs and poorer households in richer LMICs. Economic globalisation was associated with higher odds of DBM among the poorest households (odds ratio 1·49, 95% CI 1·20-1·86) compared with the richest households. These associations attenuated as GNI increased. Social globalisation was associated with higher odds of DBM (1·39, 95% CI 1·16-1·65), independently of household wealth or country income. No associations were identified between political globalisation and DBM. INTERPRETATION: Increases in economic and social globalisation were associated with higher DBM, although the impacts of economic globalisation were mostly realised by the world's poorest. The economic patterning of DBM observed in this study calls for subpopulation-specific double-duty actions, which should further aim to mitigate the potential negative and unequal impacts of globalisation. FUNDING: UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council. TRANSLATIONS: For the Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Contribution of primary care expansion to Sustainable Development Goal 3 for health: a microsimulation of the 15 largest cities in Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: As middle-income countries strive to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it remains unclear to what degree expanding primary care coverage can help achieve those goals and reduce within-country inequalities in mortality. Our objective was to estimate the potential impact of primary care expansion on cause-specific mortality in the 15 largest Brazilian cities. DESIGN: Microsimulation model. SETTING: 15 largest cities by population size in Brazil. PARTICIPANTS: Simulated populations. INTERVENTIONS: We performed survival analysis to estimate HRs of death by cause and by demographic group, from a national administrative database linked to the Estratégia de Saúde da Família (Family Health Strategy, FHS) electronic health and death records among 1.2 million residents of Rio de Janeiro (2010-2016). We incorporated the HRs into a microsimulation to estimate the impact of changing primary care coverage in the 15 largest cities by population size in Brazil. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Crude and age-standardised mortality by cause, infant mortality and under-5 mortality. RESULTS: Increased FHS coverage would be expected to reduce inequalities in mortality among cities (from 2.8 to 2.4 deaths per 1000 between the highest-mortality and lowest-mortality city, given a 40 percentage point increase in coverage), between welfare recipients and non-recipients (from 1.3 to 1.0 deaths per 1,000), and among race/ethnic groups (between Black and White Brazilians from 1.0 to 0.8 deaths per 1,000). Even a 40 percentage point increase in coverage, however, would be insufficient to reach SDG targets alone, as it would be expected to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 20% (vs the target of 33%), and communicable diseases by 15% (vs 100%). CONCLUSIONS: FHS primary care coverage may be critically beneficial to reducing within-country health inequalities, but reaching SDG targets will likely require coordination between primary care and other sectors.

Expansion of primary healthcare and emergency hospital admissions among the urban poor in Rio de Janeiro Brazil: A cohort analysis.

Background: Robust evidence on the relationship between primary care and emergency admissions is lacking in low- and middle-income countries. This study evaluates how the phased roll out of the family health strategy (FHS) to the urban poor in Rio de Janeiro Brazil affected emergency hospital admissions and readmissions from ambulatory-care sensitives conditions (ACSCs). Methods: A cohort of 1.2 million adults in Rio de Janeiro city were followed for five years (Jan 2012 to Dec 2016). The association between FHS use and the likelihood of emergency hospital admissions and 30-day readmissions were evaluated using multi-level Poisson regression models with inverse probability treatment weighting and regression adjustment (IPTW-RA) for socioeconomic and household characteristics. Inequalities in associations were examined across groups of causes and by key socioeconomic groups. Results: Records from 2,551,934 primary care consultations and 15,627 admissions were analysed. In IPTW-RA analyses, each additional FHS consultation was associated with a 3% lower rate of ACSC admission (RR: 0.97; 95%CI: 0.95, 0.98), a 63% lower rate of 30-day readmissions from any non-birth cause (RR: 0.37; 95%CI: 0.30, 0.46), and an 57% lower rate of 30-day readmissions from ACSCs (RR: 0.43; 95%CI: 0.33, 0.55). Individuals who were older, had the lowest educational attainment, were unemployed, and had higher incomes had larger reductions in ACSC admissions associated with FHS use. Interpretation: Investment in primary care is important for reducing emergency hospital admissions and their associated costs in LMICs. Funding: DFID/MRC/Wellcome Trust/ESRC.

Cigarette taxation and neonatal and infant mortality: A longitudinal analysis of 159 countries.

Previous studies on the associations between cigarette taxes and infant survival have all been in high-income countries and did not examine the relative benefits of different taxation levels and structures. We evaluated longitudinal associations of cigarette taxes with neonatal and infant mortality globally. We applied country-level panel regressions using 2008-2018 annual mortality and biennial WHO tobacco taxation data. Complete data was available for 159 countries. Outcomes were neonatal and infant mortality. We conducted analyses by type of taxes (i.e. specific cigarette taxes, ad valorem taxes, and other taxes, import duties and VAT) and the income group classification of countries. Covariates included scores for other WHO recommended tobacco control policies, socioeconomic, health-care, and air quality measures. Secondary analyses investigated the associations between cigarette tax and cigarette consumption. We found that a 10 percentage-point increase in total cigarette tax as a percentage of the retail price was associated with a 2.6% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.9% to 3.2%) decrease in neonatal mortality and a 1.9% (95% CI: 1.3% to 2.6%) decrease in infant mortality globally. Estimates were similar for both excise and ad valorem taxes. We estimated that 231,220 (95% CI: 152,658 to 307,655) infant deaths could have been averted in 2018 if all countries had total cigarette tax at least 75%. 99.2% of these averted deaths would have been in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The secondary analysis supported causal interpretation of results by finding that a 10 percentage-point increase in taxes was associated with a reduction of 94.6 (95% CI: 32.7 to 156.5) in annual cigarette consumption per capita. Although causal inference is precarious due to the quasi-experimental design, we used a robust analytical approach and focused on within-country changes. Limitations include an inability to include data on roll-your-own tobacco, other forms of tobacco use, and reliance on taxation data only for the cigarette brands most sold in each country. In line with limited existing evidence conducted in HICs, we found that raising taxes on tobacco was associated with a reduction in neonatal and infant mortality globally. Implementing recommended levels of taxation in LMICs should be a priority since this is where the lowest levels of taxation and the largest potential infant mortality benefits exist.

Inequalities in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factors in Brazilian slum populations: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Social and environmental risk factors in informal settlements and slums may contribute to increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study assesses the socioeconomic inequalities in CVD risk factors in Brazil comparing slum and non-slum populations. METHODS: Responses from 94,114 individuals from the 2019 Brazilian National Health Survey were analysed. The United Nations Human Settlements Programme definition of a slum was used to identify slum inhabitants. Six behavioural risk factors, four metabolic risk factors and doctor-diagnosed CVD were analysed using Poisson regression models adjusting for socioeconomic characteristics. RESULTS: Compared to urban non-slum inhabitants, slum inhabitants were more likely to: have low (less than five days per week) consumption of fruits (APR: 1.04, 95%CI 1.01-1.07) or vegetables (APR: 1.08, 95%CI 1.05-1.12); drink four or more alcoholic drinks per day (APR: 1.05, 95%CI 1.03-1.06); and be physically active less than 150 minutes per week (APR: 1.03, 95%CI 1.01-1.04). There were no differences in the likelihoods of doctor-diagnosed metabolic risk factors or CVD between the two groups in adjusted models. There was a higher likelihood of behavioural and metabolic risk factors among those with lower education, with lower incomes, and the non-White population. CONCLUSIONS: Brazilians living in slums are at higher risk of behavioural risk factors for CVD, suggesting local environments might impact access to and uptake of healthy behaviours.

Interpersonal violence and depression in Brazil: A cross-sectional analysis of the 2019 National Health Survey.

Depression and interpersonal violence are issues of increasing public health concern globally, especially in low-and-middle income countries. Despite the known relationship between interpersonal violence and an increased risk of depression, there is a need to further characterise the experience of depression in those who have experienced violence, to better develop screening and treatment interventions. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted on responses from the 2019 Brazilian National Health Survey. The prevalence of depression (both clinician-diagnosed, and Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) screened) were estimated by type of violence experienced in the preceding 12 months (none, physical violence, sexual violence, physical and sexual violence, or threat of violence). Logistic regression models assessed the associations between violence and depression after adjusting for socioeconomic and demographic factors. Of 88,531 respondents, 8.1% experienced any type of violence. Compared to those not experiencing violence, those who experienced any type of violence had a higher prevalence of clinician-diagnosed or PHQ-9-screened depression (e.g. the prevalence of clinician-diagnosed depression was 18.8% for those experiencing sexual violence compared to 9.5% for those not experiencing violence). Both undiagnosed and untreated depression were also more prevalent in those experiencing any type of violence. In logistic regression models, any experience of violence was associated with a higher odds of depression (e.g. aOR = 3.75 (95% CI: 3.06-4.59) for PHQ-9-detected depression). Experiencing violence was also associated with a higher likelihood of having depression which was undiagnosed (e.g. in those who experienced sexual violence: aOR of 3.20, 95% CI 1.81-5.67) or untreated (e.g. in those who experienced physical and sexual violence: aOR = 8.06, 95% CI 3.44-18.9). These findings highlight the need to consider screening for depression in those affected by violence, and to prioritise mental healthcare in communities affected by violence.

Challenges facing the More Doctors program (Programa Mais Médicos) in vulnerable and peri-urban areas in Greater Brasilia, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: A shortage of physicians, especially in vulnerable and peri-urban areas, is a global phenomenon that has serious implications for health systems, demanding policies to assure the provision and retention of health workers. The aim of this study was to analyze the strategies employed by the More Doctors Program (Programa Mais Médicos) to provide primary care physicians in vulnerable and peri-urban parts of Greater Brasilia. METHODS: The study used a qualitative approach based on the precepts of social constructivism. Forty-nine semi-structured interviews were conducted: 24 with physicians employed as part of the More Doctors program, five with program medical supervisors, seven with secondary care physicians, twelve with primary care coordinators, and one federal administrator. The interviews occurred between March and September 2019. The transcripts of the interviews were submitted to thematic content analysis. RESULTS: The partnership between the Ministry of Health and local authorities was essential for the provision of doctors-especially foreign doctors, most from Cuba, to assist vulnerable population groups previously without access to the health system. There was a notable presence of doctors with experience working with socioeconomically disadvantaged populations, which was important for gaining a better understanding of the effects of the endemic urban violence in the region. The incentives and other institutional support, such as enhanced salaries, training, and housing, transportation, and food allowances, were factors that helped provide a satisfactory working environment. However, the poor state of the infrastructure at some of the primary care units and limitations of the health service as a whole were factors that hampered the provision of comprehensive care, constituting a cause of dissatisfaction. CONCLUSIONS: More Doctors introduced a range of novel strategies that helped ensure a supply of primary care doctors in vulnerable and peri-urban parts of Greater Brasilia. The inclusion of foreign doctors, most from Cuba, was crucial for the success of the health services provided for the local communities, who subsist in violent and socioeconomically deprived urban areas. However, it became clear that barriers from within the health service itself hampered the physicians' capacity to provide a satisfactory service. As such, what is needed for primary care to be effective is not just the recruitment, training, and deployment of doctors, but also investment in the organization of the whole health system.